The Market Timing Game simulation is premised on the idea that buying-and-holding index investing and index funds are a no-brainer investment strategy and market timing (i.e. trying to predict market direction and trading accordingly) is a less than optimal strategy. The saying goes “Time in the market not timing the market”. In this simulation, you are given a 3-year market period from sometime in history (between 1950 and 2018) or you can run in Monte Carlo mode (which picks randomly from daily returns in this period) and you start fully invested in the market and can trade out of (and into) the market if you feel like the market will fall (or rise). The goal is to see if you can beat the market index returns.
In my previous post, about California water levels, I presented a “bar graph” showing the amount of water currently in California’s reservoirs. However, I thought it’d be interesting to see how this has changed over the course of the last few months, since the state has gotten alot of rain and snow recently. I decided to try and “animate” the graph for the current water year (going back to October 1, 2015) showing how the recent El Nino rain has been filling up the reservoirs in California. Click the “animate” button below the figure and you can use the slider to change the speed of animation as it cycles through the days. (more…)