Posts for Tag: population

Election Results and Population Density

Posted In: Elections
election county population density
Facebooktwitterredditpinterestlinkedinmail

How do 2020 presidential election results correlate with population density?

The visualization I made about county election results and comparing land area to population size was very popular around the time of the 2020 presidential election. As the counties were represented by population, it was clear that democratic-leaning areas on that map tended to grow in size, while republican-leaning areas tended to shrink. This raised the question of exactly how population density correlates with election results.

Hover over (or click on) the bubbles to see information about the county.

 

It’s clear there is a very strong correlation between the vote margin and population density.  Vote margin is the percentage amount that one candidate beat the other candidate by in the county (0% means a tie while 50% means that one candidate got 75% and the other got 25% of the voteshare).  Population density is calculated as people per square mile in the county and is shown in the graph on a log scale, where each major grid line is 10 time greater than the previous one.  This is done because there is one to two orders of magnitude difference in the densest counties (in New York City) and even moderately dense counties.  There are also several counties with population density below 1 person per square mile (several in Alaska because of the size of their counties) but these are excluded from the graph.

Richmond County, NY (i.e. the Borough of Staten Island) is the densest county (17th densest) in the country that Trump won. The densest counties favored Biden quite heavily as he won 45 of the 50 densest counties in the country, which also tend to have a fairly high population.

This second graph is a histogram that specifically categorizes counties into discreet bins by population density. Note that they are on a log scale as well. You can toggle the graph to show the number of counties won by each candidate or the number of votes won in each of the population density bins. The black line shows the percentage of counties (or votes) won by the democratic candidate (Joe Biden) in each of those bins.

Hover over (or click on) the bars to see information about each county bin.

It’s pretty clear in these graphs that low population density areas clearly favor the republican while the denser areas favor the democrat.

 

Data and Tools
The 2020 county-level election data is downloaded from the New York Times county election data API and processed using a python script. Population data used is for 2018. The visualization was created using the open-source plotly javascript graphing library.

How many Americans have contracted Coronavirus?

Posted In: Health | Maps
Facebooktwitterredditpinterestlinkedinmail

The number of US coronavirus cases is equal to the population of several states put together.

click on the buttons below to see a new set of states. The number of Americans who have contracted the Coronavirus keeps going up with little indication of slowing down. This is an amazingly large number of cases is the highest in the world and I wanted to visualize how many people this actually is. While the number of US COVID-19 cases is very large, comparing these number to the size of the populations in several states helps to provide more context. The visualization shows a random collection of states whose total population is equal to the latest coronavirus numbers. If you click the button you can see a different set of states that have a population equal to the current number of coronavirus cases.
The graph is updated daily using data from covidtracking.com. It’s important to note that the number of people with COVID-19 is an underestimate as many coronavirus cases are asymptomatic (i.e. people don’t get sick or show any symptoms) and the positivity rate of tests is quite high. Stay safe out there: stay away from people and wear your mask!

Sources and Tools:

Data on coronavirus cases was obtained from covidtracking.com. The visualization was created using javascript and the open source leaflet javascript mapping library.

US coronavirus cases

US Senate Representation

Posted In: Government

FacebooktwitterredditpinterestlinkedinmailEach state has two senators in the Senate, even though there is a great disparity in the populations of the states. This was a compromise that the framers of the Constitution dealt with in creating the framework of the US government. While the US House of Representatives is based on proportional representation, the Senate was designed to have two senators per state regardless of population. This leads to some interesting variations in the number of votes that some senators get relative to other senators (and how many people they represent).

Graph of Total Votes for Each Current Senator (2014, 2016 and 2018)


This graph is called a treemap and shows the total number of votes cast for the winner of each senate race of the current sitting senators. They are shown in order from largest to smallest vote totals, where the area of the rectangle is proportional to the number of votes. The treemap can be organized by party if desired. This graph does not show the number of votes that their opponents got.
If you hover over (click, on mobile) one of the boxes in the treemap, you can compare the number of votes received by that senator to the number of senators that received the same number of votes combined. This helps highlight the disparities in the representation of voters in large states in the Senate relative to that of voters in states with low populations.

For example, Kamala Harris, Democratic senator of my home state of California, received 7.5 million votes when she won her senate race in 2016. This large number of votes is larger than the combined votes for 22 of her Republican colleagues in small states. This is even more impressive since, as noted before, she ran against another Democrat Loretta Sanchez, in the election.

Note that some of the recently elected senators shown in the table are no longer serving in the Senate:

  • John McCain’s seat is currently held by Martha McSally
  • Johnny Isakson’s seat is currently held by Kelly Loeffler

Because of the large variation in population sizes and a tendency for more populous states to vote for democrats, Democratic Senators received many more votes in their elections than their Republican colleagues did, despite having fewer numbers. The 47 Democratic (and Independent) senators received a total of 67.5 million votes while the 53 Republican senators received 59.5 million votes.

Graph of Margin of Victory over Opposing Party for Each Current Senator (2014, 2016 and 2018)


This graph shows a slightly different set of data. Instead of total votes for the winning candidate, it shows the vote margin (i.e. the number of votes the winner received vs the opponent of a different party). The reason I specify it this way is that the two Democratic California senators defeated other democrats to win their elections (i.e. no republican was on the ballot in the general election because no republican got enough votes in the primary). This comparison is interesting because not only do some senators receive very few votes (because they live in small states), but they may only win by a small margin over their opponents. Comparing margins of victory, shows how few votes it would take to “flip” a Senate seat between the two parties.

If you take Kamala Harris’s margin of victory over Republicans to be her vote total (7.5 million votes) since there was no Republican running against her, her margin of victory is greater than the margin of victory of 43 of her Republican Senate colleagues combined.

Sources and Tools:

Senate election data was downloaded from MIT election lab. The data was processed using python/pandas and the visualization was created using javascript and plotly.js, the open source javascript graphing library.

state borders

Most COVID-19 deaths in the US could have been avoided

Posted In: Health
Avoidable US Coronavirus Deaths

Facebooktwitterredditpinterestlinkedinmail

The US coronavirus death rate is quite high compared to other countries (on a population-corrected basis)

US coronavirus deaths have surpassed 200,000. Many of these deaths could have been avoided if swift action had been taken in February and March, as many other countries did. This graph shows an rough estimate of the number of US deaths that could have been avoided if the US had acted similar to other countries.

This graph takes the rate of coronavirus deaths by country (normalized to their population size) and imagines what would happen if the US had had that death rate, instead of its own. It then applies that reduction (or increase) in death rate to the total number of deaths that the US has experienced. The US death rate is about 600/million people in September 2020 and if a country has a death rate of 60/million people, then 90% of US deaths (about 180,000 people) could have been avoided if the US had matched their death rate. The government response to the pandemic is one of several important factors that determine the number of cases and deaths in a country. Other factors can include the overall health of the population, the population structure (i.e. age distribution of population), ease of controlling borders to prevent cases from entering the country, presence of universal or low-cost health care system, and relative wealth and education of the population.

The graph lets you compare the potential reduction in US deaths when looking at 30 different countries. You can choose those 30 countries based on total population, GDP or GDP per capita. These give somewhat different sets of countries to compare death rates, which is an indication of the effectiveness of the coronavirus response.

A valid criticism of this graph is that testing and data collection is very different in each of the countries shown and the comparisons are not always valid. This is definitely a problem with all coronavirus data but for the most part, the very large differences between death rates would still exist even if data collection were totally standardized. Some of the data from the poorest countries is less reliable, because they have less testing capabilities.

Source and Tools:
Data on coronavirus deaths by country is from covid19api.com and downloaded and cleaned with a python script. Graph is made using the plotly open source javascript library.

avoidable us coronavirus deaths

Visualizing the scale of unemployment due to COVID-19 pandemic

Posted In: Unemployment
Facebooktwitterredditpinterestlinkedinmail

The number of Americans who have recently filed for unemployment due to the coronavirus pandemic is equal to the entire labor force of several states put together.

click on the button below to see a new set of states.

A record 16 million Americans just filed for unemployment due to the coronavirus pandemic at the end of March and early April 2020. This is an amazingly large number of people and I wanted to visualize how many people this actually is. For context, the US Department of Labor statistics states that in February 2020 (before the pandemic hit the United State) there were 164.2 million workers in the Civilian Labor Force.

The Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) site defines “Civilian Labor Force” as such:

    “The labor force includes all people age 16 and older who are classified as either employed and unemployed, as defined below. Conceptually, the labor force level is the number of people who are either working or actively looking for work.”

This basically means that approximately 10% of the entire workforce of people (both employed and unemployed in Feb 2020) are now out of a job. While 10% is a large, unprecedented number in our lifetimes, comparing these number to the size of the workforce in several states helps to provide more context. The visualization shows a random collection of states whose total labor force is equal to the latest unemployment numbers. If you click the button you can see a different set of states that have the same total labor force.

Predictions are that the number of unemployed will grow as the shutdowns and social distancing measures to contain the virus continue through April and into May. I will update this graph to reflect new numbers as they come out.

And we can only hope that people will be able to manage these tough economic times until we contain the virus and the economy rebounds.

Stay safe out there: stay away from people and wash your hands!

Sources and Tools:

Data on unemployment was obtained from the US Department of Labor website and labor force numbers by state are downloaded from the Bureau of Labor statistics. And the visualization was created using javascript and the open source leaflet javascript mapping library.

US city names

Mapping US Cities By Name

Posted In: Geography | Maps
Facebooktwitterredditpinterestlinkedinmail

This map of the United States visualizes over 28,000 cities in the 50 states. The interactive visualization lets you type in a name (or part of a name) and see all of the cities that contain those string of letters. The points on the map show the geographic center of each city.

For example, if you type in “N”, you will highlight all cities that start with an N in the US. As you type in another letter (e.g. “e”, it will narrow down the cities that begin with those two letters (“Ne”). It will progressively narrow down the number of cities as you type in more letters. You can see an scrollable list of the cities (ordered by city population) that contain the string of letter that you have typed.

If you hover over a highlighted city, you can see the name of the city.

You can click on the check box to show or hide the outlines of the states.

You can “Show City List” to show the list of cities that contain the string of letters you have typed.

Sources and Tools:

City name and location data was downloaded from simplemaps.com. And the visualization was created using javascript and the open source leaflet javascript mapping library.

US city names