Posts for Tag: visualization

When Can I Retire? Early Retirement FIRE Calculator

Posted In: Financial Independence | Money
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How long do I need to save before I can retire?

This early retirement calculator / visualizer is designed to project the number of years until you can retire, based upon a few key inputs such as annual income and spending, income growth rate, expected annual spending in retirement and asset allocation. It is useful before you retire to get a sense of how many years it is likely to take to accumulate enough to retire. The two primary modes that are available in the early retirement calculator are: (1) constant, single fixed-percentage real return rates and (2) historical series of real returns are applied to account for likely variability in future returns.
This interactive calculator was built to let you play with the inputs and help you understand how savings rate and retirement spending strongly determine how long it will take you to save up for retirement.
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Retirement Calculator: Will My Money Survive Early Retirement? Visualizing Longevity Risk

Posted In: Financial Independence | Money
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Rich, Broke or Dead?

You may notice that additional features have been added to the calculator (taxes, investment fees, and ability to add other income sources (e.g. social security) and other expenses to the calculator).
One of the key issues with retiring is the question of outliving your money. This is also known as Longevity Risk and is especially important if you want to retire early, since your retirement could be 50 years long (or more). This interactive calculation and visualization looks at the question of whether your retirement savings can last long enough to support your retirement spending and combines it with average US life expectancy values to get a fuller picture of the likelihood of running out of money before you die.

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Should You Invest (Or Wait) When The Stock Market Is At An All-Time-High?

Posted In: Financial Independence | Money
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The stock market has been on a bull run (hitting numerous all time highs) for the last 8+ years and it’s not clear when it will end. Whenever there’s been an extended bull run, one question that comes to mind “Should I invest in the market now, or wait until a pullback?” The question comes about because of fear and loss aversion: fear that the market will drop right after they invest and the observation that people want to avoid losses more than they value gains. However, historically, the correct answer, at least over the last 68 years, has been to invest and not to try to time the market.

This was also demonstrated in the Market Timing Game; that people are pretty bad at predicting the direction of the markets and given the upward trend of the market, it’s simpler and more likely than not, better to just stay invested in the market. The corollary to this is that when you have additional money to invest (e.g. from regular savings from your paycheck or a one-time event like the sale of a house), it makes sense to invest the money and not worry about whether the market is at a high or low point. Some graphs that look at the distribution of returns when the market is at an all time high (ATH) can help answer this question of whether you expect to see worse returns than investing at other times.
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Shall We Play A (Market Timing) Game?

Posted In: Financial Independence | Money
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The Market Timing Game simulation is premised on the idea that buying-and-holding index investing and index funds are a no-brainer investment strategy and market timing (i.e. trying to predict market direction and trading accordingly) is a less than optimal strategy. The saying goes “Time in the market not timing the market”. In this simulation, you are given a 3-year market period from sometime in history (between 1950 and 2018) or you can run in Monte Carlo mode (which picks randomly from daily returns in this period) and you start fully invested in the market and can trade out of (and into) the market if you feel like the market will fall (or rise). The goal is to see if you can beat the market index returns.
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¿Cuánto tardarías en contar hasta un millón?

Posted In: Counting | Fun | Math
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Disculpe(n) mi pobre español. Utilicé google translate para escribir esto en español.
Aquí está la calculadora que calculará cuánto tiempo lleva contar un millón (o números mayores) en español.
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Demographic Characteristics of US Voters (2016)

Posted In: Voting
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US politics has more than a few issues, which have been highlighted by the current situation in Washington DC. The protests and greater political awareness from high school students and young adults is a positive sign for democracy, but it needs to be accompanied by increased rates of voting from this demographic. I thought it would be interesting to explore rates of voting in the US across different demographic groups (age, education, income, race). This data is from the 2016 US presidential election.

Total eligible US voting population was about 224 million in 2016 and the overall rate of voting among this population was 61.4%.

The first graph shows the distribution by age. As we can see, the rate of registration and voting increases with age. It is hard to engage young people to be interested in voting but hopefully they will do so in greater numbers this upcoming election.

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